We continue to observe solar activity and found that sunspot 1618 has produced new solar flares, all geo-effective, which is spreading increasingly geo-magnetic storm expected for 23, and I think we will have sustained storm for a few days;
M1.4-C1.2-C4.1-C1.6
And the last type M3.4 solar flare that seems to come also from sunspot 1618. after coming to make a C1.6 continued climbing. The values of proton, continue to rise significantly;
The model ENLIL had much work to process the two M-class solar flares on 20 November so that magnified into one.
The problem arises now with this new M class solar flare but magnitude 3.4. In this case my experience indicates that the magnitude of the geo-magnetic storm of November 23 could be of value 3 and for a couple of days no one level down.
SPACE WEATHER FORECAST
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event, with an associated Earth-directed CME (estimated velocity of 664 km/s), observed at 20/1241Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk Region 1618 (N08E14) has retained its beta-gamma magnetic complexity. New Region 1620 (S08E59) was numbered.
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 20/1958Z. Total IMF reached 7.8 nT at 19/2347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.2 nT at 20/1725Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1277 pfu.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov). Protons have a slight chance to cross alert threshold on days one,two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov) due to expected solar flare activity from Region 1618. Further analysis is needed to determine the geoeffectiveness of todays CME.
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Nov 141 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 122 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 006/005-006/005-007/009 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/10/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/20
